The brand new yr is starting with extra of the identical. The U.S. has been in vital drought since late 2020 with drought circumstances persevering with into 2023. The ultimate Drought Monitor of 2022 confirmed that 74.05 % of the U.S. is abnormally dry or worse (D0-D4) with 49.65 % of the nation in D1-D4 ranges of drought.
The drought classes might be mixed into the Drought Severity and Protection Index (DSCI), which might vary from 0 to 500 and presently stands at 165. The DSCI for the U.S. has been 150 or above for 117 consecutive weeks, relationship again to October 2020 (Determine 1).
Previous to this era, the U.S. DSCI has not been above 150 since 2013. The present interval with DSCI above 150 is longest interval with the index at this degree and accounts for 47 % of on a regular basis the U.S. DSCI has been above 150 within the 23-year historical past of the Drought Monitor relationship again to 2000.
As 2023 begins, 17 states have a DSCI higher than 150, principally within the central plains and western U.S. Six states, together with California, Kansas, Nebraska, Nevada, Oklahoma and Utah have a present DSCI over 300, with a most DSCI of 358 in Nebraska. These six states had 6.64 million head of beef cows in the beginning of 2022, accounting for 22 % of the full beef cow herd. Little doubt these states have already seen vital herd liquidation in 2022 however clearly will face extra herd liquidation if circumstances don’t enhance.
Drought in January is a priority for the approaching yr however not a significant downside now. There’s loads of time for circumstances to enhance going into the 2023 rising season. The present seasonal drought outlook map offered by the Local weather Prediction Heart means that circumstances are unlikely to enhance over the winter in main beef cow states with drought persisting within the central and southern plains, though some enchancment is indicated within the intermountain west.
Nevertheless, present local weather outlook from the Local weather Prediction Heart predicts La Niña circumstances to fade to impartial by spring, thus reviving some hope for improved circumstances heading into the rising season.
Supply: Oklahoma State College
