The primary half of 2023 has actually seen vital modifications in cattle and beef markets. Costs are larger throughout the board as tighter cattle numbers and declining beef provides push markets in the direction of or past document ranges. Remaining drought areas within the central and southern plains proceed to shrink with persevering with impacts on the areas however much less affect nationally on cattle markets.
Beef manufacturing within the first 24 weeks of the 12 months is down 4.9% from the 2022 document tempo. Within the final 4 weeks of information, beef manufacturing is down 5.3% 12 months over 12 months. Yearling (steer + heifer) slaughter is down 3.0% 12 months over 12 months to this point in 2023, with steer slaughter down 4.7% for the 12 months to this point and heifer slaughter down 0.4% to this point this 12 months. Nonetheless, heifer slaughter is down 4.9% 12 months over 12 months within the final 4 weeks and combines with a 5.9% lower in steers slaughter to cut back whole yearling slaughter 5.5% in the latest 4 weeks of information. Whole cow slaughter is down 4.4% for the 12 months to this point with a 12.1% 12 months over 12 months lower in beef cow slaughter partially offset by a 5.5% 12 months to this point enhance in dairy cow slaughter. Bull slaughter is down 8.4% so far in 2023.
Oklahoma public sale costs for steer calves below 600 kilos have averaged 41.9% larger 12 months over 12 months in June. Feeder steers over 600 kilos have averaged 39.7% larger in comparison with the identical 4 weeks one 12 months in the past. The five-market fed cattle worth has averaged 30.3% larger 12 months over 12 months prior to now 4 weeks. The June cattle on feed report confirmed that feedlot inventories have been decrease for 9 consecutive months. The June 1 feedlot stock was 11.55 million head, down 2.9% 12 months over 12 months. The decline in feedlot stock has been comparatively gradual with Might feedlot placements larger than anticipated primarily based on lingering drought impacts and robust feeder demand as feedlots try to take care of inventories. Nonetheless, feeder provides and feedlot numbers will proceed to say no as the truth of smaller cattle provides builds. Elevated heifer retention is more likely to squeeze feeder provides extra sharply within the second half of the 12 months.
Boxed beef costs within the final 4 weeks have averaged 24.1% larger 12 months over 12 months. Boxed beef costs moved sharply larger after Memorial Day by mid-June with sturdy shopping for for the Independence Day vacation. The comply with as much as July 4 (a four-day weekend for a lot of) will present good indications for beef demand for the rest of summer time. It’s typical for beef demand to expertise a slow-down in the course of the summer time doldrums, however total beef demand stays strong.
The largest query for the second half of the 12 months is the extent to which herd rebuilding begins with elevated heifer retention and continued reductions in cow slaughter. Producer expectations and remaining drought situations will affect the timing of herd rebuilding efforts. The upcoming July “Cattle on Feed” report (with quarterly steer and heifer feedlot inventories) and the July “Cattle” report are anticipated to supply vital clues as to how cattle market situations could change within the second half of the 12 months.
