Weekly beef cow slaughter has been greater yr over yr for 70 consecutive weeks. In that interval, on solely 4 events has the yr over yr enhance been lower than 3.0 %. The newest weekly knowledge reveals that beef cow slaughter was up 2.7 % yr over yr, simply the second week this yr up lower than 3.0 %. It’s too early to make sure however beef cow slaughter could also be slowing down. In Oklahoma auctions, the weekly quantity of cull cows was double final yr from July by means of early November earlier than declining the previous two weeks. Two weeks in the past, the weekly cull quantity was about equal to final yr, and the quantity within the newest weekly knowledge is down 9.0 % yr over yr.
For the yr thus far, beef cow slaughter is up 12.3 % yr over yr. If beef cow slaughter have been to say no to only equal yr in the past ranges for the remaining weeks of the yr, whole beef cow slaughter for the yr can be up 10.5 % yr over yr. This could be a web beef cow herd culling charge of 13.1 % for the yr, a brand new file stage.The precise culling charge is prone to be just a little greater.
Nonetheless, heifer slaughter has not but proven any indicators of lowering. The October 1 quarterly cattle on feed report confirmed that the variety of heifers in feedlots was nonetheless up 1.7 % yr over yr. Since that report, weekly heifer slaughter has continued to be up over 4 % yr over yr with the newest week up 5.8 % over the identical week one yr in the past. Decrease feedlot placements in October presumably means fewer heifers coming into feedlots as effectively and lowered heifer slaughter finally.
For the yr thus far, heifer slaughter is up 4.9 % over final yr. By a number of relative measures, 2022 heifer slaughter is on the highest stage since 2003. Just like the meat cow slaughter hypothesis, if heifer slaughter dropped to be simply equal to final yr for the rest of the yr, whole annual heifer slaughter can be up 4.3 % yr over yr. Beef cow and heifer slaughter may drop to yr in the past ranges, and even decrease, but it surely appears unlikely at this level and the variety of weeks remaining within the yr is dwindling quickly.
With drought persevering with, it’s not clear what to anticipate for cow and heifer slaughter going ahead. It appears probably that many producers have adjusted herd inventories, given hay and feed provides, to have the opportunity get by means of the winter. This may imply that cow culling will decelerate by means of the winter. If La Niña persists subsequent spring, extra liquidation could be anticipated going into the subsequent rising season.
In any occasion, the harm to cattle business feminine inventories is already executed in 2022. Whole cow plus heifer slaughter is over 51 % of whole cattle slaughter up to now this yr and is prone to common over 50 % for the complete yr. That is the very best feminine slaughter share since 1986. The feminine slaughter share varies in a reasonably slender vary, and it appears to be like like the share for 2022 will likely be greater than two commonplace deviations above the common of the previous 30 years. In different phrases, the extent of cow plus heifer slaughter this yr could be very uncommon and signifies essentially the most extreme depletion of feminine cattle inventories in additional than three a long time.
Supply: Oklahoma State College
