USDA-NASS launched their January 1, 2023, cattle stock estimates final week. To nobody’s shock, the report confirmed one other yr of contraction within the beef cattle business. In accordance with the report, cattle inventories totaled 89.27 million head, a 3% decline yr over yr. The desk on the finish of this text offers estimates for every cattle class within the report.
There was no query that the meat cow herd had reduced in size; it was only a query of how a lot smaller (see graph above). A mixture of dry climate, increased enter prices, and excessive cull cow costs resulted in an 11% enhance in beef cow slaughter throughout 2022. This was mixed with a lower in heifer retention as extra heifers entered the meat provide chain. USDA estimated the variety of beef cows within the US to be down by greater than 1 million year-over-year. This was a lower of three.6%, and that was after a downward revision of about 0.5% to the January 1, 2022 estimate. For perspective, this places the dimensions of the US cowherd beneath 2014 ranges and the smallest since 1962.
Whereas beef cow inventories are likely to get probably the most consideration, a number of different numbers are notably attention-grabbing. Heifers held for beef cow alternative had been down 6%, a bigger lower than seen within the January or July report from final yr. This means continued reductions within the dimension of the meat cow herd for the present yr. Whereas the climate will undoubtedly play an element right here, cow numbers and heifer retention estimates counsel that calf crops will hold getting smaller within the close to time period.
Cattle-on-feed numbers even have essential implications for 2023. As extra females entered the meat provide chain, on-feed stock ran above year-ago ranges for a lot of 2022. That pattern lastly modified final fall, and notice the 4% discount within the desk beneath. This speaks to beef manufacturing in 2023, which might be down significantly. In truth, 2023 would be the first year-over-year lower in beef manufacturing since 2015.
The USDA report is summarized within the desk beneath and the complete report will be accessed right here.
