Substitute heifers are genetic constructing blocks for the cow herd. Producers hope {that a} alternative heifer will turn out to be a fertile cow that produces a calf, yearly, for a very long time. Producers make many administration steps and selections within the course of of choosing and rising alternative heifers. Every heifer should move a number of “manufacturing assessments” to stay on monitor and, hopefully, turn out to be a member of the cow herd.
Choice at weaning, growth from weaning to first breeding, analysis after first breeding and calving season, and institution of profitable rebreeding are the manufacturing assessments every heifer should move. Heifers not assembly manufacturing targets are usually culled at any level within the course of.
The place are you able to get the information? Every January and July, USDA’s Nationwide Agricultural Statistics Service asks a pattern of cattle producers to voluntarily present stock numbers. The January survey is the bigger of the 2 surveys. Estimates are made for all states.
Fewer calves imply much less beef coming
The calf crop contains beef and dairy calves. NASS estimated the 2022 U.S. calf crop at 34.465 million head, down 2.0% from 2021. A few of this “decline” is because of NASS revising the 2021 calf crop up by 80,500 head, or 0.2%, within the newest report.
Calves born throughout the first half of 2022 have been estimated at 25.3 million head, down 1.6% from the primary half of 2021. Calves born throughout the second half of 2022 have been estimated at 9.165 million head, down 3.2% from the second half of 2021. The smaller calf crop implies fewer cattle will come to market in late 2023 and 2024.
Whereas beef cattle inventories are declining, dairy cattle numbers are secure. Meaning dairy calves will make up a better share of calf crops within the coming years. In 2014, dairy calves totaled practically 26% of the online (adjusted for veal slaughter) calf crop, a latest report. Dairy’s share will proceed rising, and proportionally extra dairy calves will affect cattle markets for a minimum of the following couple of years.
Cattle numbers weak to climate
Cow‐calf producers rely extra instantly on climate than every other livestock sector. A number of years of persistent drought in key cattle-producing areas of the West and Nice Plains have impacted vary and pasture situations and devastated hay manufacturing. The Dec. 1, 2022, nationwide hay provide was down a pointy 9% from Dec. 1, 2021, and the bottom Dec. 1 hay inventory on report courting again to 1973. Excessive adjustments in provides occurred within the Southern Plains, however reached into Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri and Iowa.
Cow culling cuts herd
The 28.918 million-head U.S. beef cow stock on Jan. 1 was down 3.6% from Jan. 1, 2022. That was the biggest year-over-year share drop within the beef cow herd since 1985 to 1986. Numbers tumbled because the trade culled 13.3% of the nationwide herd in 2022. This culling charge was the very best ever within the historical past of the information going again to 1986.
The U.S. beef cow herd is the smallest since 1962. The 2023 beef cow herd can be already 38,500 head smaller than on Jan. 1, 2014, which was the underside of the final cattle stock cycle.
A number of prime beef cow states continued to liquidate beef herds as a consequence of drought, excessive enter prices and excessive cull-cow values. Which issue drove liquidation most varies amongst operations. Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Nebraska and South Dakota accounted for 537,000 head of the entire 1,065,200-head lower in U.S. beef cows.
Fourteen states had extra beef cows on Jan. 1 than on Jan. 1, 2022, however additions solely totaled 38,800 head. That’s smaller than the 45,000-head beef cow drop in Iowa alone. The biggest will increase have been 6,000 beef cows in Alabama and 5,000 beef cows in Pennsylvania.
Replacements should move assessments
A heifer for beef cow alternative is a heifer that has been chosen to be bred and positioned within the beef herd. For NASS survey classification functions, these heifers weigh 500 kilos or extra on Jan. 1. Beef alternative heifers as of this Jan. 1, at 5.164 million head, have been down 5.8% from a yr earlier. NASS additionally requested, “What number of of those beef cow alternative heifers are anticipated to calve throughout 2023?” Of the 5.164 million beef alternative heifers, 3.169 million head, or 61.4%, are anticipated to calve this yr. That’s the highest share since 2018.
Perceive organic time lag
In 2022, 73.4% of all calves within the U.S. have been born from Jan. 1 by means of June 30. A heifer calf born in spring 2022 would have been weaned within the fall. If she was chosen to be a cow herd alternative, she shall be bred this summer time. She’s going to calve for the primary time in spring 2024. She’s going to wean her first calf in fall 2024. If her calf is meant for the slaughter market, it should nonetheless be completed and harvested earlier than it provides to beef manufacturing. This gained’t happen till the summer time or fall of 2025.
Some recommend significant progress in rebuilding the nation’s beef cow herd might not materialize till 2025. In the course of the early phases of beef herd growth, marketings will really decline as producers maintain extra heifers for breeding. Much more time will move earlier than a bigger breeding herd can ship extra calves to market.
One other rule of three is utilizing three successive phrases to specific a central thought. Examples embody: life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness; the great, the unhealthy and the ugly; blood, sweat and tears. One might argue these describe cattle manufacturing at instances. The hope for this yr is one other hendiatris: moisture, moisture, moisture.
Schulz is an Extension ag economist with Iowa State College.
