Drought-accelerated herd liquidation the previous two years has made the meat cow herd the smallest in 61 years. With persevering with drought situations, it’s unsure when, however it’s sure that there’ll robust curiosity in rebuilding the herd every time situations allow. Leaving apart the query of extra drought, what is feasible in 2023 given present availability of substitute heifers?
The variety of beef substitute heifers on January 1, 2023 was 5.16 million head, down 5.8 % yr over yr. This follows a 5.5 % yr over yr lower in 2022. Beef substitute heifers represented 17.9 % of the meat cow herd on January 1, the bottom proportion of beef substitute heifers since 2012. Beef substitute heifers common 18.4 % of the meat cow herd, and over the last herd growth, beef replacements reached a cyclical peak degree of 21.0 % of the meat cow herd. The reported stock of beef substitute heifers consists of bred heifers and heifer calves in growth for breeding.
For the previous 23 years, USDA-NASS has supplied a complete variety of the meat substitute heifers that may calve within the present yr. These bred heifers sometimes make up about 61 % of the overall beef replacements. The variety of bred heifers on January 1, 2023 was 3.17 million head, 61.4 % of the overall beef substitute heifers. The variety of bred heifers on January 1 was down 5.1 % yr over yr and was the bottom beef bred heifer whole since 2011. This follows a 4.8 % yr over lower in bred heifers in 2021.
Subtracting the variety of beef bred heifers from the overall beef substitute heifer stock leaves the variety of heifer calves in growth to be bred this yr. This calculated whole of substitute heifer calves for 2023 was 1.995 million head, the bottom within the knowledge collection. This whole was down 6.9 % yr over yr and follows a 6.1 % yr over yr decline in 2022. These beef substitute heifer calves are assumed to have been retained from final yr’s calf crop and can turn into bred heifers subsequent yr.
The variety of beef substitute heifer calves annually will not be sufficient to account for the overall stock of bred heifers the next yr. Over the previous 20 years, the variety of beef substitute heifer calves represents 63.8 % of the bred heifers the next yr. Which means additional heifers had been bred through the yr that weren’t reported as substitute heifers on January 1. These additional heifers are assumed to return out of the stock of different heifers. For instance, on January 1, 2023, the stock of bred beef heifers was 3.17 million head, made up of substitute heifer calves from final yr (2.14 million head) and one other 1.03 million head of additional heifers bred out of the stock of different heifers from final yr. This calculated whole 1.03 million head of additional heifers bred is the bottom whole within the knowledge again to 2001. The calculated variety of additional heifers bred decreased 12.1 % yr over yr in 2021 and decreased one other 1.8 % in 2022.
The decreased variety of beef substitute heifer calves and additional beef heifers bred in 2021 and 2022 helps clarify elevated heifer slaughter the previous two years. Heifers diverted from breeding to feeding contributed to the 4.0 % yr over yr improve in 2021 and the 4.8 % yr over yr improve in 2022 in heifer slaughter. All of which contributes to the restricted variety of substitute heifers out there in 2023.
The numbers recommend that beef cow herd growth will not be attainable in 2023. The out there variety of bred heifers, mixed with a lower in beef cow slaughter in extra of 20 % decrease yr over yr, may make it attainable to carry the meat cow herd regular this yr. A low degree of extra herd liquidation is extra seemingly. Extra seemingly in 2023 is elevated retention of heifer calves and breeding of yearling heifers that may gas herd growth starting in 2024. If that occurs, each beef cow and heifer slaughter will lower sharply in 2023.
Derrell Peel, OSU Extension livestock advertising and marketing specialist, discusses newest numbers from the USDA cattle stock report on SunUp TV’s Livestock Advertising section from February 18, 2023.
