A lot of the consideration from the USDA’s Potential Plantings report has been on corn and soybeans and the consequences on feed costs.The report additionally contains updates about hay acreage, that are value discussing, given our tight hay provides over the previous few years.
First, it’s value mentioning that the information within the Planting Intentions report is simply that, producer intentions. Anticipate revisions from USDA as we get additional into the 12 months. Particularly, revisions within the June and September reviews from USDA. Closing acreage estimates are within the January Crop Manufacturing Abstract. So, there’s nonetheless a lot of time earlier than we definitively know what crop manufacturing might be for the 2023-2024 advertising 12 months.
USDA estimates complete 2023 hay acreage at 50.645 million acres. This might be 2% above the 2022 complete of 49.546 million acres however nonetheless beneath 2021 hay acreage. USDA’s estimate for 2023 hay acreage in Arkansas is 1.130 million acres or 3% greater 12 months over 12 months. Estimates for complete hay acreage embody 620 thousand acres in Mississippi, 5% greater than the 2022 complete and about even with the 2021 complete. USDA estimates Kentucky hay acreage at 2.080 million acres, a 2% improve in comparison with final 12 months.
Noticeable declines embody Kansas (down 4%) and Iowa (down 11%). USDA expects complete hay acreage in Texas, the biggest hay-producing state, to extend by 15% to 4.8 million acres. What’s shocking is even with a 15% improve in hay acreage, Texas would nonetheless be 800 thousand acres in need of the 2021 complete of 5.6 million acres.
Acreage is barely a part of the equation. Hay manufacturing equals acreage occasions yield. Hay yields might be impacted by rising circumstances this summer season. Inputs are anticipated to say no from the excessive in 2022. It’s nonetheless too early to inform, however the cattle trade wants an excellent 12 months of hay manufacturing.
