The all-fresh retail beef value in October was $7.25/lb., down barely from $7.32/lb. in September and down 4.0 p.c from the report excessive of $7.55/lb. one yr in the past. In 2022, the all-fresh retail beef value has remained in a slender vary from $7.37/lb. to $7.25/lb. and has averaged $7.33/lb. via October, up from the 2021 annual common of $6.95/lb. Determine 1 consists of all-fresh retail beef costs since January 2018 and exhibits the sharp improve in costs in 2021 and regular costs so far in 2022.
Beef demand considers retail beef costs in addition to the amount of beef consumption. Whole business beef manufacturing is projected for 2022 at a report degree of 28.3 billion kilos. After adjusting for beef commerce, per capita retail beef consumption is projected at 59.3 kilos, up yr over yr from 58.9 kilos per capita in 2021. The truth that retail beef costs this yr are averaging larger similtaneously consumption is growing is a sign of robust beef demand.
Wholesale boxed beef costs, much like retail costs, have traded in a slender vary for many of 2022. Since March, Selection boxed beef has averaged $261.77/cwt. with a weekly most of 272.48/cwt. and a minimal of $246.31/cwt. resulting in a variety of $26.17/cwt. This follows very robust wholesale demand in 2021 which led to a median Selection boxed beef value of $279.81/cwt. with a weekly most of $347.02/cwt., a minimal of $206.73/cwt. and a variety of $140.29/cwt. for the yr.
To date in 2022, Selection boxed beef costs reached a low for the yr in October of $246.31/cwt. and have elevated to over $263/cwt. in the latest two weeks. Costs for quite a few wholesale cuts have elevated together with the tenderloin at $15.06/lb., up practically 38 p.c from the August low and now 12 p.c larger than yr in the past ranges.That is the very best wholesale tenderloin value since September 2021. Wholesale ribeye costs usually improve within the fall forward of vacation demand for Prime Rib, and not too long ago reached $10.23/lb., the primary time over $10/lb. since final yr. Present ribeye costs are up practically 23 p.c from the summer time low.
As all the time, there may be an excessive amount of dynamics throughout varied beef product markets. Along with the center meats mentioned above, wholesale costs have elevated not too long ago for chuck rolls, mock tender, chuck flap and eye of spherical. Different merchandise proceed to have weak or lackluster costs together with tri-tip, backside sirloin flap and flank steak. Wholesale brisket costs have been largely regular this yr, averaging $5.86/lb. after surging to report excessive ranges of $8.00/lb. in the summertime of 2021. Wholesale floor beef costs have dropped about 10 p.c because the finish of summer time grilling season in September. There may be fixed jockeying in wholesale product values because of the dynamics of home and worldwide beef demand. Nevertheless, beef demand seems to be typically regular and robust on the finish of 2022.
Beef manufacturing is predicted to lower sharply in 2023, which is able to result in larger beef costs and extra beef product market dynamics. Shoppers, so far, have absorbed giant provides of beef at report costs. As beef provides tighten, some customers could start to “commerce down” as market costs ration a smaller provide of beef. Per capita beef consumption is predicted to lower within the coming yr, not as a result of beef demand is weak however just because the out there provide of beef will lower.
Supply: Oklahoma State College
