USDA’s July “Cattle” report confirmed that the U.S. beef cow herd continued to say no by way of the primary half of the 12 months. The July 1 beef cow stock was 29.4 million head, down 2.6% 12 months over 12 months. That is the fifth 12 months of smaller beef cow inventories because the 2018 cyclical peak, with the meat cow herd down 3.0 million head, a five-year lower of 9.3%. The smaller beef cow herd is a part of a basic lower in all cattle numbers within the U.S.
The overall stock of all cattle and calves on this report was 95.9 million head, down 2.7% 12 months over 12 months. The overall stock of heifers was down 3.8% from final 12 months with decreases of two.4% and a pair of.7% for beef and dairy substitute heifers, together with a 5.2% decline within the stock of different heifers. The stock of steers over 500 kilos was down 3.5% 12 months over 12 months and the stock of calves beneath 500 kilos was down 2.6% from one 12 months in the past. The bull stock was down 5.0% 12 months over 12 months. Whole cattle in feedlots on July 1 was 13.1 million head, down 2.2% 12 months over 12 months. The calculated provide of feeder cattle (different heifers + steers + calves – cattle on feed) primarily based on this report is 34.4 million head, 3.6% smaller than final 12 months. The report pegged the 2023 calf crop at 33.8 million head, down 1.9% 12 months over 12 months. The dairy cow stock, at 9.4 million head, was unchanged from final 12 months and was the one stock class within the report not displaying a year-over-year lower.
Not solely did the report present continued cattle liquidation to this point in 2023, however there are additionally no clear indications that numbers will stabilize and develop anytime quickly. The present stock of beef substitute heifers is 4.05 million head, decrease than the earlier cyclical low of 4.2 million head in 2011 and 2012 and is the bottom in 50 years of obtainable July 1 stock knowledge. There may be actually no indication of heifer retention on this substitute heifer stock. Furthermore, the stock of heifers in feedlots from the July “Cattle on Feed” report was unchanged from final 12 months, which signifies that comparatively giant numbers of heifers proceed to be fed for slaughter moderately than retained for breeding. Heifers presently characterize 39.9% of whole feedlot inventories, the very best proportion of heifers in feedlots since 2001.
The sharp improve in feeder cattle costs this 12 months represents a rising market incentive for the meat cattle trade to transition from liquidation to herd enlargement, however it doesn’t seem that the trade is responding but. Feeder cattle costs will proceed to extend to jump-start heifer retention, which can result in even greater costs as feeder provides are additional squeezed with fewer heifers within the feeder cattle provide.
