The January Cattle Stock report supplies us with probably the most detailed view of the cattle trade we are going to get all yr. Final week’s article reviewed the nationwide numbers. This week’s article appears on the state-level knowledge for Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi. For perspective, comparisons are made with the nationwide knowledge.
Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi weren’t exceptions to the overall findings within the Cattle Stock report. One other yr of herd liquidation. In Arkansas, all cattle and calves stock declined by 70 thousand head or 4.1% to a complete of 1.63 million head. Whole cattle inventories in Mississippi totaled 860 thousand head, a 5.5% decline yr over yr. Kentucky cattle inventories declined by 4.9% and totaled 1.93 million head. All three states had bigger proportion declines than the nationwide estimate of three%.
The Arkansas beef cow herd declined by 4.3% to 866 thousand head. Mississippi beef cow numbers declined by 29 thousand head or 6.1%. The Kentucky beef cow herd totaled 895 thousand head, a 7.3% decline yr over yr. Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi account for two.21 million beef cows or 8% of the nationwide beef cow herd.
Giant declines in substitute heifer numbers might restrict choices for herd enlargement via 2024. Arkansas was one in every of 14 states with a double-digit drop in beef substitute heifer numbers. The opposite states embody Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, North Dakota, Ohio, Texas, and Virginia. Beef substitute heifers declined 8.8% in Mississippi and eight.0% in Kentucky.
The report additionally included estimates of the 2022 calf crop for every state. Nationally, the calf crop was 2% decrease in 2022 than in 2021. The Arkansas estimate was 760 thousand calves born throughout 2022 which was solely a 1.3% decline. The Mississippi estimate was 370 thousand calves (a 5.1% decline) and the Kentucky estimate was 920 thousand (a 6.1% decline).
The declines in beef cows and substitute heifers suggests the stage is already set for an excellent smaller calf crop nationally in 2023. There can be state-level variations, particularly if drought circumstances proceed in some areas. Tighter calf provides are an enormous cause for the stronger cattle worth expectations in 2023 and 2024. Feeder cattle futures costs for the autumn months are above $210. These are ranges not seen since 2014 and 2015 because the market costs within the expectation of tighter provides.
The USDA report is summarized within the desk under and the complete report might be accessed right here.
