Grocery worth inflation gave the impression to be slowing in January, in accordance with analysis from Circana and 210 Analytics, and gross sales in most classes confirmed indicators of development.
The common worth per unit throughout multi-outlet shops, together with supermarkets, membership, mass, supercenter, drug, and navy, elevated by 0.9% within the 4 weeks ending Jan. 28, in contrast with January 2023. That included a 0.3% decline within the common worth per unit for all perishables departments, and a 2% improve for dry groceries.
“Regardless of worth will increase slowing down, 93% of customers within the January Circana shopper survey remained involved over grocery costs,” stated Anne-Marie Roerink, president, 210 Analytics.
She famous that with Easter falling on March 31, the upcoming vacation promoting season can be shorter than it has been in a number of years.
“If Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Yr’s patterns maintain, the gross sales peak will doubtless shift again to the vacation week itself as a substitute of the week prior,” Roerink stated, including that the typical occasion measurement has crept as much as 8.2 individuals, and that customers count on to spend “a bit of greater than final yr.”
Meat gross sales inch upward
As meat costs remained comparatively secure in January vs. a yr in the past, gross sales in each {dollars} and kilos skilled a slight uptick. Greenback gross sales rose 2.5% in January, to $6.6 billion, together with a 3.7% acquire for contemporary meat, barely offset by a 0.1% decline in greenback gross sales of processed meat.
Contemporary turkey was among the many standout classes in January, with greenback gross sales up 6.4% and kilos rising 7.8% vs. a yr in the past. Contemporary beef additionally had greenback gross sales features of 6.4%, largely pushed by inflation as kilos had been up solely 0.6%.
“Turkey breast particularly had a really sturdy begin of the yr, maybe hand-in-hand with customers’ New Yr’s resolutions,” Roerink stated within the month-to-month meat report.
A separate Circana/210 Analytics report on plant-based meat options discovered that mixed contemporary and frozen gross sales had been down 5.2% in January, to $85.6 million, and down 8.4% in models. Whole gross sales for the final 52 weeks had been nonetheless barely over $1 billion, down 11.1% vs., the previous 52-week span.
Produce gross sales replicate bigger pack sizes
Greenback gross sales of contemporary produce had been up 1% in January, in contrast with a yr in the past, to $5.8 billion. The info present that whereas unit gross sales of produce had been down 0.3%, nevertheless, quantity in kilos rose 0.7%, reflecting a shift to bigger pack sizes, notably in commodities with longer shelf-life, Roerink stated.
She famous that produce gross sales patterns mirrored these within the meat division, with sturdy gross sales within the first two weeks of January and lagging within the second half of the month.
She additionally famous that contemporary produce skilled solely delicate worth will increase in January and for the 52-week interval, relative to a yr in the past, though vegetable costs decreased in January, pushed at the least partially by extra and deeper promotions.
Deli gross sales notch broad features
Apart from a slight dip in deli meat gross sales, all different deli classes noticed gross sales features in January relative to a yr in the past. Total the deli division had greenback gross sales features of 1.3%, reaching $3.5 billion, and unit gross sales features of 1.6%.
“Deli-prepared meals stay a brilliant spot in grocery retailing,” stated Roerink within the report. “As customers stability price vs. comfort, ready meals are hitting a candy spot and are more and more stepping up as true restaurant options.”
Ready meats (up 10.1% in {dollars} and 11% in models), soups and chili (up 14.6% in {dollars} and 15.3% in models), and desserts (up 13.1% in {dollars} and eight% in models) had been the most important gainers in deli-prepared meals.
Frozen meals a combined bag
Pizza, processed meat, and baked items had been among the many best-performing classes inside frozen meals January, in accordance with the Circana knowledge. Frozen baked items noticed greenback gross sales up 7.1% vs. a yr in the past and unit volumes up 4.5%, whereas greenback gross sales of frozen pizza had been up 5.7% vs. a yr in the past, with unit volumes up 4.3%. Processed meat noticed a spike in unit quantity, up 6.4%, though greenback gross sales solely grew by 1.1% as the typical worth per unit fell 1% year-over-year.
Total, frozen meals costs had been up 5.4% on a 52-week foundation, though they had been just about flat at +0.3% on a month-to-month foundation. Frozen drinks and fruit and veggies each skilled unit-price inflation in double digits on a month-to-month foundation in January, whereas meat, processed meat, seafood, and meals skilled deflation.
Seafood gross sales erode
Gross sales of each contemporary and frozen seafood declined in January, in comparison with year-ago ranges, in each {dollars} and kilos. Gross sales of ambient seafood, in the meantime, was up barely, pushed by features in each sardines and tuna.
The seafood report discovered that costs per pound decreased for each frozen and contemporary seafood in January, in contrast with a yr in the past, and the value per unit decreased for shelf-stable seafood.
“Nonetheless, at a median worth per pound of $9.26, the price for contemporary seafood remained considerably larger than the typical worth per pound for the three greatest animal proteins of hen ($3.05), pork ($3.20) and beef ($6.15),” Roerink stated.
She additionally famous that shellfish, which had seen sturdy quantity gross sales amid worth deflation within the first half of 2023, “couldn’t maintain the road on quantity gross sales” in January of this yr, when year-over-year volumes had been down 4.2%.
