Heifer slaughter remained sturdy within the first half of 2023 however does present indicators of declining going ahead. For the primary half of the yr, complete heifer slaughter was down 0.5% yr over yr with a lower of over 4% within the month of June.
The July “Cattle” report might be launched by USDA on July 21 and the business is trying to see if there are any indications that herd liquidation has ended, and herd rebuilding may start. The report is predicted to indicate that herd liquidation continued within the first six months of the yr however could sluggish within the the rest of the yr. There isn’t any information at present to help the concept heifer retention is underway, however it could have began with latest enhancements in vary and pasture situations.
The meat substitute heifer quantity within the upcoming report might be of eager curiosity and is prone to present a nonetheless smaller quantity in comparison with final yr however may present a slight improve yr over yr if heifer retention has begun.
The cattle stock report will present that the meat cow herd continued to say no within the first half of the yr. Whereas beef cow slaughter is down to this point…down 12.0% yr over yr within the first six months of the yr…the present tempo suggests a herd culling charge over 12% for the yr. Beef herd enlargement requires a herd culling charge under 10% and sure under 9% for a yr or extra.
Beef cow slaughter is prone to lower extra considerably within the second half of the yr however is unlikely to drop sufficient to return near stabilizing the meat cow herd this yr. Whole cow plus heifer slaughter by June averaged 51.8% of complete cattle slaughter. This share signifies persevering with herd liquidation. Whole feminine slaughter will drop under 45% of complete slaughter throughout energetic herd enlargement. That is unlikely to occur earlier than 2024 a minimum of.
The July “Cattle” report is predicted to indicate that herd liquidation continued within the first half of the yr. The report is unlikely to indicate definitive indicators of sturdy heifer retention however may point out the start of retention if the meat heifer stock is down simply barely or presumably even up barely. The month-to-month “Cattle on Feed” report, launched the identical day, may even embrace a quarterly breakdown of steers and heifers in feedlots.
The variety of heifers on feed decreased modestly in comparison with final yr within the January and April information however a sharper decline within the variety of heifers in feedlots on this July report could be the primary important information indication of heifer retention.
Briefly, the upcoming studies are unlikely to indicate that herd liquidation has stopped however may present indications that the scenario will start to stabilize within the the rest of the yr.
